AI could deepen India’s middle-skill jobs crisis
Argument
Ashoka University economists Mahajan, Sharma and Wadhwa argue that AI will not create India’s jobs crisis, but it could make an existing one worse. Their case is that employment is rising, yet the growth is tilting toward low-skill and high-skill work while middle-skill jobs, which usually give educated workers a ladder into stable employment, are barely growing.
Established Evidence
They back that claim with labour-market data from 2018-19 to 2025: working-age employment rose from 47% to 56.2%, but more than 40 million workers moved into agriculture and much of the non-farm gain came from low-end occupations. By their mapping of 70 Indian jobs against current AI capabilities, software, clerical and finance roles look more exposed, while construction, cleaning and food-preparation work looks least exposed, though the authors note the method uses US task data and is not a perfect fit for India.
Counterpoints
The authors also point to a possible upside: AI could raise productivity, improve services and create new kinds of work if policy channels it well.
Their argument rests on occupational mapping rather than direct job-loss evidence, so the biggest pressure may still arrive before the labour market shows it clearly.