Goldman says India faces less AI job risk than other countries
Summary
Goldman Sachs’ chief India economist Santanu Sengupta says India is less exposed than many countries to job losses from artificial intelligence, because a large share of the workforce still does mechanical or physical work rather than tasks AI can easily replace. He says the bigger effect will fall on parts of services, especially call-centre-heavy work in IT, telecom and postal services.
Established Evidence
Sengupta also argues that a slower, better-sequenced rollout of AI could limit displacement and lift productivity by 0.4 percentage points over a 10-year horizon, according to Goldman estimates. That claim rests on a broad economic judgment, not hard labour-market evidence, and the article itself gives only a partial picture of which jobs would be reshaped versus eliminated.
Counterpoints
Goldman says finance, health care, education and business services could gain from AI adoption, so the net effect is not just job loss.
The bank’s view depends on AI being introduced gradually; a faster or less controlled rollout could expose more workers to substitution risk.
Next Decision
Goldman’s rate outlook hinges on core inflation: the RBI could start raising rates in December, or delay the first move to February and April if underlying price pressures ease more slowly.